Scientists expect global warming to exceed the target of 1.5°C.


Planet is heading towards at least 2.5°C of warming with disastrous results for humanity, reveals The Guardian.

Exclusive research by the British newspaper The Guardian released this Wednesday (08/05) states that the world’s leading climate scientists estimate that global temperatures should rise to at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) this century. With this new perspective, internationally set targets would be exceeded, with catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet.

The Guardian report reveals that almost 80% of scientists questioned for the report predict at least 2.5°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. These scientists are part of the renowned Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For half of these scientists, there will be at least a 3°C (5.4°F) increase in temperatures, and only 6% consider that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F) will be met.

Scientists interviewed by The Guardian project a “semi-dystopian” horizon.

Many of the scientists consulted by The Guardian report predict a “semi-dystopian” horizon, with massive famines, conflicts and migrations, driven by heat waves, forest fires, floods and storms with an intensity and frequency far greater than those that have already occurred. .

Numerous experts said they felt desperate, enraged and frightened by governments’ failure to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided. However, many said the climate fight must continue, no matter how high the global temperature, because every bit of intensity avoided would reduce human suffering.

The climate crisis is already causing profound damage to lives and livelihoods around the world, with just 1.2ºC (2.16ºF) of global warming on average over the last four years. Jesse Keenan, from Tulane University, in the USA, said: “East is only the firstfruits: fasten your seatbelts”.

Nathalie Hilmi, from the Monaco Scientific Center, who expects an increase of 3ºC, agreed: “We cannot remain below 1.5ºC”.

Experts said massive preparations to protect people from the worst climate disasters ahead are now critical. Letícia Cotrim da Cunha, from the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely concerned about the costs in human lives.”

The 1.5ºC target was chosen to prevent the worst of the climate crisis and has been seen as an important guiding star for international negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is clearly on track for around 2.7°C, and the Guardian team’s survey shows that few IPCC experts expect the world to take the necessary steps to reduce this figure.

Credits: The Guardian